Sure, but you’re overestimating retail as a force of money and knowledge.
Think about how many people have independent, thought-out stakes. There are usually two routes for the average saver: a BlackRock/Vanguard index fund driven by a private banker, a robo-advisor, or TikTok knowledge (or all of the above). Or, alternatively, your company/guild has a massive pension fund or endowment investing on your behalf.
If you think either of those is actively discarding SpaceX (buying the 503 companies of the S&P index, and saying no to buying SPCX explicitly), you are just delusional. I don’t mean you personally; I mean the thought itself. Hope that doesn't offend you.
The Aramco comparison broke my brain a bit, 80 years of oil and 20 trillion in reserves to set the old record, and the new record holder is cash flow negative. Did you try putting a number on how much of the float ends up in passive hands once all the index adds settle?
I’m not entirely sure, but I would expect the majority of the float to be in the hands of passive players, given how large it is relative to the rest of the market.
The more useful lens here is market structure rather than intent. When large listings compress the price discovery window and accelerate index inclusion, demand shifts from discretionary to mechanical buyers. That can create near-term support, but it also means a meaningful portion of the valuation work is deferred rather than resolved. The real question is how much of that adjustment still sits ahead once flows normalise.
I'd love to hear your take. Did you buy at the IPO? Are you a long-term believer? Did reading this article change your perspective?
The average American hates Elon and will not give him even the out of circulation, left over Pennies in their junk drawer.
Sure, but you’re overestimating retail as a force of money and knowledge.
Think about how many people have independent, thought-out stakes. There are usually two routes for the average saver: a BlackRock/Vanguard index fund driven by a private banker, a robo-advisor, or TikTok knowledge (or all of the above). Or, alternatively, your company/guild has a massive pension fund or endowment investing on your behalf.
If you think either of those is actively discarding SpaceX (buying the 503 companies of the S&P index, and saying no to buying SPCX explicitly), you are just delusional. I don’t mean you personally; I mean the thought itself. Hope that doesn't offend you.
The Aramco comparison broke my brain a bit, 80 years of oil and 20 trillion in reserves to set the old record, and the new record holder is cash flow negative. Did you try putting a number on how much of the float ends up in passive hands once all the index adds settle?
I’m not entirely sure, but I would expect the majority of the float to be in the hands of passive players, given how large it is relative to the rest of the market.
Agreed!
The more useful lens here is market structure rather than intent. When large listings compress the price discovery window and accelerate index inclusion, demand shifts from discretionary to mechanical buyers. That can create near-term support, but it also means a meaningful portion of the valuation work is deferred rather than resolved. The real question is how much of that adjustment still sits ahead once flows normalise.
IMO, most of it. Overall agreed tho