The "not probable" label is what I'd watch on those RSUs. Management calls the targets unlikely for the accounting, then talks growth on the call. If they flip to probable, the catch-up charge lands in the same quarter the numbers look best.
Are those shares in your $55, or did you leave them out?
Hey Radu, thanks for the comment. We did not include the probable RSUs into the final count. We however did note dilution, so you can just include the % and get a larger denominator.
What matters here is understanding what they are doing right and wrong.
Thanks Alejandro, the % works for the count. What I'd still watch is the timing: if the targets flip to probable, the catch-up expense lands in a single quarter, likely a strong one, and the margin takes the hit right when the story sounds best.
Do you track the vesting targets anywhere, or only the share count?
Honestly, I don’t. What I focus on is understanding the net impact.
For me, an investment thesis needs to be an obvious, undeniable 'yes.' The moment you have to start fine-tuning edge cases or calibrating assumptions just to make the math work, that’s usually the market telling you to walk away… or at least pass for now.
The "not probable" label is what I'd watch on those RSUs. Management calls the targets unlikely for the accounting, then talks growth on the call. If they flip to probable, the catch-up charge lands in the same quarter the numbers look best.
Are those shares in your $55, or did you leave them out?
Hey Radu, thanks for the comment. We did not include the probable RSUs into the final count. We however did note dilution, so you can just include the % and get a larger denominator.
What matters here is understanding what they are doing right and wrong.
Thanks Alejandro, the % works for the count. What I'd still watch is the timing: if the targets flip to probable, the catch-up expense lands in a single quarter, likely a strong one, and the margin takes the hit right when the story sounds best.
Do you track the vesting targets anywhere, or only the share count?
Honestly, I don’t. What I focus on is understanding the net impact.
For me, an investment thesis needs to be an obvious, undeniable 'yes.' The moment you have to start fine-tuning edge cases or calibrating assumptions just to make the math work, that’s usually the market telling you to walk away… or at least pass for now.