Why Wall Street Buried My 2025 Podcast Episode… And What It Means For Monday's Open
PoW #31 | Nervous investors are panic-selling what may be a literal +97% asymmetric bet
For transparency’s sake, and to provide full value, here is our list of Pick of the Week posts and their returns since publishing:
Equally weighted portfolio: +14.02%
Fund-allocated picks only: +38.43%
This next company is US-based and a bit larger than our usual plays. We’re bringing back a familiar name… one we’ve been involved with for a while.
Now, this might not be a triple-digit return overnight, but it is an incredibly predictable and stable winner.
As you know, thoroughly understanding a business is a must, but timing is where we really pride ourselves when it comes to deploying capital. And the timing here is perfect.
Very little happens in my life that isn’t reviewed 20 times over. More importantly, almost nothing happens that isn’t completely transparent. So let me give you the backstory.
Back in early July 2025, I recorded an episode for a major, US-based financial podcast breaking down this exact company. At the time, the stock was trading around $22 a share, which I felt was fair value. The podcast host actually thought I wasn’t hyping the stock up enough.
And he was right… I wasn’t.
I was being transparent about my thesis: I viewed it as a solid 3x over the next decade, but expected it to trade sideways in the near future because it had already soared.
As you can probably guess, that recording never saw the light of day.
Fast forward to today. Investors are suddenly dumping this exact same company for no fundamental reason. The price is right, the timeline is incredibly solid, and we have a few additional catalysts on the way.
⭐ Overall Grade: 9.0 / 10
Pick of the Week. A curated series of high-conviction research on companies currently under our microscope. We screen for specific dislocations where the market has mispriced the balance sheet or earnings power.
The Selection Criteria:
Asset Arbitrage: Trading at a discount to tangible liquidation value.
Backlog Disconnect: Future contracted revenue ignored by the market.
Hidden Margins: Structural profitability masked by temporary noise or CAPEX cycles.
The Structure:
The Business: A concise operational overview.
The Dislocation: The specific structural reason the opportunity exists.
The Valuation: A stress-tested snapshot including downside risks (”Red Flags”) and our proprietary score.
None of the following should be construed as investment advice. Please consult a financial advisor before making any investment decision. You will find a full disclaimer at the end of this post.
