From €9.75 to €17.67: A Look Inside the Machine
Results Are the Byproduct of Our Work
Welcome back dear fellow 🧙♂️ Hermits 👋
2025 is about to come to an end, and we wanted to take a moment to review our value proposition.
We are going to discuss the past, present, and future of this publication and, more importantly, your involvement in it.
First, free readers see our thinking. Paid members see our capital moves, sizing, entries, exits, and thesis changes in real time.
Soon we will intentionally cap the fund at €12m to protect returns and preserve our edge in neglected small companies.
To our paid subscribers and investors: thank you for the trust. We earn it every day with transparency and execution.
Second, as for our results, the last time we performed a valuation back in September, we got the following:
XXX ➤ C$0.46 ➤ C$1.70 (+269%)
XXX ➤ NOK 74.80 ➤ NOK 210 (+181%) + 8% dividend
XXX ➤ C$0.29 ➤ C$0.71 (+145%)
XXX ➤ C$1.70 ➤ C$4.00 (+135%)
XXX ➤ $2.37 ➤ $6.00 (+153%)
XXX ➤ NOK 99.98 ➤ NOK 180 (+80%) + 2026 dividend
XXX ➤ $6.67 ➤ $12.00 (+80%)
XXX ➤ C$1.35 ➤ C$2.10 (+55%)
XXX ➤ C$0.76 ➤ C$1.20 (+58%)
XXX ➤ €3.64 ➤ €5.00 (+36%)
XXX ➤ $0.95 ➤ $1.50 (+57%)
TOTAL NAV ➤ €9.75 ➤ €17.67 (+81%) [net of fees]
More context can be found here 👇
We’ve added six more holdings since then, all with triple-digit expected upside over the next 12–24 months.
We’ll review everything in detail, as we do every quarter, in our December portfolio post. Expect a material improvement in outcomes, especially thanks to two of our most recent purchases, which have catalysts in Q1 2026.
Third, we’ve been diligently delivering on our value proposition.
We’ve posted our two core series in a timely and transparent fashion. Over time, we’ve consistently added more depth to our write-ups, including interviews with management, expert commentary, and specialist reports.
This series alone, in the institutional world, would be worth $2-3k/month.
We’ve also consistently published all our adds and trims, right and wrong, and our real-time thesis updates as we transitioned into our concentrated primary-research driven small-cap portfolio, Equity Focus FIL.
Note: had we simply held onto the assets before the fund got authorization, we would have capped upside today, but we would be up roughly +30% for the year.
(check out portfolio updates for June or prior).
Just look at:
Commmodity plays: Daqo at $17.29 (+83.2%), Spartan Delta at C$2.82 (+168.8%), DMX at C$0.30 (+280.0%);
AI and IOT plays: Nebius at $21.15 (+348.7%) and Shelly at €33.08 (+68.6%);
Takeover plays: Strata (formerly Blade) at $2.96 (+46.6%), and The Children’s Place at $6.94 (+46.6%);
and the list goes on…
Our playbook is simple. We know exactly what we own… we do the work.
Fewer ideas, deeper work.
And we’ve also kept up with our weekly review of the top names we’ve found or recently reviewed.
Note: after many requests, we’ve adjusted our timing. The main post will be published on Wednesdays, and the Pick of the Week will go out on Saturdays.
Fourth and last, we have a ton of content brewing. Paid members can expect:
Two holding deep dives on companies poised to 2-3x in the next 24 months for December and January, each with around 40 minutes of pure gold, including management interviews, deep industry insights, clear catalysts, and a full valuation as always.
One brand new major discovery with 5x potential. An Eastern European power plant maintenance company with 50% EBIT margins, 40% of its market cap in cash, trading at 2x EV/FCF, and with a soon-to-be-announced listing in Germany that should act as a powerful value catalyst.
One major update on a past holding we used to own that now has a standing buyout offer, which could lead to a 2.5 to 4.0x outcome in the second half of 2026. We are actively building a position again and will be sharing comments as early as December.
And much more on companies that are neglected but set to destroy competitors, that have entered mass commercialization, that are nearing index inclusion, that have absolute geniuses at the helm, and all with catalysts lined up for 2026 and 2027.
We’ll keep having fun, making the best content in this corner of the market, and taking you along for the ride.
Very good work. You're paid little for the value you bring.