Buying Dollars for 27 Cents
PoW (#16) 0.89x P/Op Cash Flow. 377% Upside to Proven (1P) Reserves. And a management team paying down debt at a furious pace
We’ve been stalking this thesis since April 2025. It was supposed to be a cornerstone of our portfolio, but by the time we launched the fund in July, the price had run away from us. We thought the window had closed.
Then, this week happened. A dip in oil prices sent the market into panic mode, and they threw the baby out with the bathwater. That panic just handed us a rare second chance.
What you are about to read is the definition of… boring and beautiful.
It is predictable, cash-generative, and offers a massive margin of safety relative to the hard assets.
It’s also intervened by a friendly fund, which means value unlock is imminent. We’d expect most of the return to be realized throughout 2026.
⭐ Overall grade: 9.0 / 10
Pick of the Week. A curated series of high-conviction research on companies currently under our microscope. We screen for specific dislocations where the market has mispriced the balance sheet or earnings power.
The Selection Criteria:
Asset Arbitrage: Trading at a discount to tangible liquidation value.
Backlog Disconnect: Future contracted revenue ignored by the market.
Hidden Margins: Structural profitability masked by temporary noise or CAPEX cycles.
The Structure:
The Business: A concise operational overview.
The Dislocation: The specific structural reason the opportunity exists.
The Valuation: A stress-tested snapshot including downside risks (”Red Flags”) and our proprietary score.
None of the following should be construed as investment advice. Please consult a financial advisor before making any investment decision. You will find a full disclaimer at the end of this post.
